Introduction

Two Brothers, Earl Black, professor of political science at Rice University, and Merle Black, professor of politics and government at Emory University provided an understanding or the regional divisions within the United States and our changing demographic voting patterns.

 

The biggest story of Modern America politics is the ferocious power struggle between conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats over each elected institution of the national government. The two parties are very evenly divided, and control of the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives can change with each round of elections. Depending upon who wins impacts the fate of millions of Americans and even larger numbers elsewhere in the world. The authors point out that permanently competitive and ideologically charged politics is a new reality for America. Unlike the period, 1860- 1928, when Republicans dominated the political scene or 1932-1968, when Democrats were the dominant Party, the current political landscape reflects very close electorate preferences between the two parties. 

 

Certainly, the nation has almost from inception had partisan politics. The Democratic Stronghold of the South lasted from Thomas Jefferson to 1980. William Jennings Bryan forged an unsuccessful alliance of farmers and rural Americans against the rising urban metropolises. 

 

In brief, the Blacks divided the United States into five regions: The Northeast, South, Midwest, Mountains/Plains, and Pacific Coast. They identified the social and partisan trends during the past half century that have made American politics so intensely competitive. The reason why regions are so important is that the United States does not have genuine national elections.

 

We have offsetting ideological preferences among different groups that predominate in each of the regions.

 

The Democrats have a substantial edge in the Northeast and a smaller edge in Pacific Coast.

 

The Republicans have a substantial edge in the South and Mountain/Plains. 

 

Thus, the Midwest today is the key Battleground Area-the Crucial Swing Region. Currently, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are toss ups.

 

In order to remain competitive, both the Republicans and Democrats needed to reinvent themselves. Specifically, the Republicans have replaced the Democrats in the South. The Democrats have replaced the Republicans in the Northeast.

 

Unlike a generation ago, conservatives (about 24% of the electorate) have migrated almost exclusively to the Republican Party. On the other hand, liberals (about 15% of the electorate) have migrated almost exclusively to the Democratic Party. THUS, TO WIN, EACH PARTY MUST WIN A MAJORITY OF THE MODERATES—SOME 60% OF THE POPULACE. 

 

The problem of extremism is highlighted by the primary process. That is, conservatives make up a majority of the Republican Party and liberals plus minorities make up a majority of the Democratic Party. However, to win election, each party must attract significant numbers outside their base.

 

1976

Conservatives

Liberals

Democrats

19%

22%

Republicans

50%

8%

2008

 

Democrats

6% 

27%

Republicans

62%

4%

 

Race and Ethnic Groups

 

Racial and ethnic groups are the principal building blocs of partisan coalitions. Understanding modern American politics requires tracing patters of partisanship for whites, African-Americans and the New Minorities of Latinos, Asians, and other ethnic groups. Because whites (78%) still cast large majorities of all votes in American elections, Earle and Merle Black paid attention to the preferences of Protestants, Catholics, and non-Christians. 

 

Racial Breakdown of Voters

 

AS LATE AS 1952, WHITES MADE UP 96% OF VOTERS IN THE UNITED STATES.

 

2004 Racial Breakdown of Voters

                 

Whites

78 %

African Americans

11%

Latinos

8%

Other

3%

 

Whites

 

Whites have migrated from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party. From 1952-1980, the Democrats led the Republicans on average 43% to 31 %. In the 2004 presidential election, 45 per cents of white voters were Republicans while only 31% were Democrats.

 

Realigning White Conservatives

As late as 1976, 40% of white conservatives were Republican, 33% were Independents, and 25% were Democrats. By 2004, 76% of white Conservatives were Republicans, and 8% were Democrats. (The Blacks did not say that 16% of Conservatives were Independents, but this is a fair assumption.)

 

White Men

 

White men have become the driving surge of the Republican electoral hopes. In 2004, 47% of white men identify with the Republican Party and only 27% identify with the Democrats. Men are more conservative than women. Conservatives swamped liberals 40% to 16% among white men.

 

White Women

In 2004, white women prefer Republicans 43% to 35%. White women conservatives are 33% versus liberals 22%.

 

African-Americans

In 2004, African-Americans voters were 78% Democrats and 8 % Republicans.

 

Religion

 

White Christian voters have declined by almost 33% of the electorate since 1952. 

White Christian Voters as Percent of Electorate

1952

2004

90%

63%

 

White Religious Affiliation 2004 Percentage of Electorate

White Protestants

55%

 

Catholics

27%

 

Non-Christian Whites

(mostly non affiliated)

18%

 

 

 

White Political Leanings 2004

 

The change in political leanings of whites from a religious standpoint has been startling. While white Protestants have historically leaned toward the Republican Party, the Republicans have been very successful in wooing a higher percentage in recent years.

 

The change in the Catholic voting pattern, our second largest religious group, is also significant. Until recent years, Catholics viewed the Republican Party as an instrument of the Protestants. In the 1950s through the 1970s, most Catholics voted Democratic. Today, a slight majority of Catholics identify with the Republican Party. Catholic men have distinctly more conservative leanings than women.

 

Christian Voting Preference

 

 

Conservative

Liberal

Protestant

45%

13%

Catholics

 

Catholic Men

46% 

27% 

Catholic Women

38% 

40%

 

Non-Christian Voting Preference

Non-Christian white voters have always been far more Democrats than Republicans. Given the growing numbers of non-Christians, this has become quite important.

 

Jews, who represent only 3% of voters, are by far the nation’s most Democratic liberal group of white voters. No other group provides such partisan and ideological support for the Democratic Party. (My personal experience does not conform to the authors’ assertions; that is, my Jewish friends are now predominantly Republicans. I expect that the Jewish preference for Obama will be marginal, if any.)

 

Un-affiliated whites are quite liberal, by a margin of about 2 to 1. Non-Christian whites, 5%, are a significantly growing number.

 

 

% of Electorate

Republicans

Democrats

Jews

3 %

15%

63%

Non-Christian Whites

5 %

25%

42%

Non-Affiliated

10%

25%

43%

 

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Democratic and Republican National Party Bases in 2004

Blue: Democrats Have Advantage

Red: Republicans Have Advantage

 

Political            Democratic      Republican      Dem Base-   Group Size

Group                Base                  Base                Rep Base

Afro-American

82

11

+71

11

Non-Christians

58

26

+32

14

New Minorities

55

24

+21

11

Catholic Women

44

42

+2

11

Nonevangelical

Protestant Women

 

41

45

-4

11

Nonevangelical Protestant men

33

52

-19

10

Catholic Men

32

52

-20

10

Evangelical Protestants

21

71

-50

22

All

43

44

-1

100

 

The strongest Democratic groups are African Americans, non-Christian whites, and New Minorities. These 3 groups cast 36% of the national vote in 2004.

 

The strongest Republican groups are white evangelical Protestants, and white men- Catholics and Nonevangelical Protestants accounted for 42% of the national vote.

 

The middle is white women: Catholics and Nonevangelical Protestants. This group is in deed the swing vote.

 

Transformation of the National Parties

 

Democratic Side

In the 1950’s White Protestants were the dominant social group within the Democratic Party. Today, they are in second place behind minorities and non-Christian whites. White Catholics, a very important part of Franklin Roosevelt’s coalition (South, Unions, Liberals, Ethnic Groups) are now the smallest force among all Democratic voters.

 

Starting in the 1990’s racial/ethnic minorities and non-Christian whites became the largest component of the Democratic Party.

 

On the Republican Side 

 

White Protestants are now 60% of the Republican Party versus 80% in the 1950’s. Catholics represent about 20% of the Republican Party. Others represent about 20%.

 

Conclusion

 

America’s two party system are remarkably durable, having dominated American life for 150 years. The dominance by the same political parties has no comparability anywhere else in the world. The modern Republican advance coupled with a substantial decline in Democratic identification, occurred during Reagan’s Presidency. That is, only in 1984, did Republicans reassert the majority that they held from 1860-1932.

 

The Republican Party has been helped more by its rise in the South than it has been hurt by its decline in the Northeast. Moreover, the growth of population in the Sunbelt should continue to aid the Republicans. 

 

Older white voters (Born before 1960) in all regions prefer the Republicans.

 

Younger white voters (Born after 1960) in all regions except the Northeast favor the Republicans.

 

Increased participation by minorities has been the main trend favoring the Democrats.