Introduction: after at least 8 years of American troops trying to defeat terrorists in Afghanistan, America needs to rethink our options expeditiously. While all of us fear terrorism, we need to address whether we can combat terrorism can more effectively and significantly less expensively by focusing our efforts almost entirely on securing our borders and using state of the art technology to complement experienced personnel in our national security efforts. Paul Kennedy who wrote the Rise and Fall of Civilizations has repeatedly asserted that great empires ultimately fail because they waste their finite financial resources on armaments. Since America will experience $ trillion-dollar deficits for the foreseeable future, we need to assess realistically the costs of all “our guns and butter.”

 

Economic fundamentals

• Fiscal expenditures to keep our economy in full gear should be in areas that promote our technological well being—energy infrastructure, communication infrastructure—highways, internet, railroads-- first rate education facilities at all levels. It is a myth that only through armaments expenditure can we keep our economy robust. Our experience after World War II proves this thesis

• Economics is the study of allocation of scarce resources. We are delusional to think that we can have our cake and eat it. 

• Continued dependence on either domestic or external funds to finance for the foreseeable future $ trillion-dollar deficits is wishful thinking. Stated differently, would American citizens be willing to incur a low standard of living to lend China enormous funds, especially if the later spent 10x what we spend on armaments?

 

Facts: The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, cannot be trusted. 

• Karzai has recently invited one of greatest enemies, the “President of Iran” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Kabul. 

• The eight-year rule of Karzai reflects rampant corruption, incompetence, criminal activity, dictatorial methods, vehement anti Western attitudes toward religious tolerance andthe role of women.

 

Historic Analogy

    

 

Barbara Tuchman wrote in March of Folly that countries pursuing costly wars can only obtain their people’s support over time if it is truly in the national interest. Otherwise, the population forces the regime to change priorities. In a democracy, the people through the ballot can change policies when they recognize that the current policies are prohibitively expensive and irrational. 

 

To follow up on Tuchman’s point, Americans will in all likelihood stop spending money on our hopeless cause to introduce democratic western ideology to Afghanistan. Vice versa, would America forego our way of life to follow the mores of Afghanistan?

 

Outside the Box

 

To secure our safety we might have to reduce our civil liberties by accepting such things as a national identity card. We need to address the problem of harboring 22 million illegal aliens since we have no reliable data on the demographics of this population which represents about 6% of our population. With 10% unemployment and 18% underemployment the case for illegal aliens doing jobs that Americans are unwilling to undertake is no longer valid. Moreover, we have not factored in the cost of providing health, education, and housing to the families of illegal aliens.

 

Lastly, we need to reexamine our constitutional guarantees of citizenship solely on the basis of being born in the United States. This constitutional privilege was granted when America had 3 million people and faced the task of populating a huge geographic area against potential enemies—France, Spain, Great Britain and Russia. America is the only advanced country that offers citizenship on that basis.

 

Wrong Jockey on 3-legged Pony

 

1. Our war objectives are being thwarted by president (dictator) Hamid Karzai. Karzai has repeatedly turned down requests of numerous American officials to stop corruption, introduce democratic reforms, and clamp down on opium trade.

2. Close to 2,000 Americans have died and another 3,000 have been seriously wounded. Even worse, the casualty rates are rising significantly with each passing year.

3. The annual costs of the war according to official government numbers are $200 billion. The true number is significantly higher because we do not count the cost of civilians, our soldiers’ retirement benefits, and medical rehabilitation costs for our wounded soldiers. The total cost of our Afghanistan involvement could easily exceed $ 1 trillion—this figure is excessive in the context of our current $8 trillion deficit.

4. Ahmed Karzai, the president’s brother, is a notorious drug lord who controls Southern Afghanistan. While publicly the administration claims that the opium goes to Pakistan, it seems likely that the ultimate destination is to other destinations such as Russia, Europe and the United States. Why would you sell opium for peanuts in Pakistan, when you can receive at least ten to fifty times as much in countries such as the United States?

5. America and its allies have no realistic chance of changing the culture of Afghanistan, a country that has blocked reforms from its neighbors and numerous invaders for thousands of years. The mindset of the dominant male population of Afghanistan holds 100% diametric different attitudes than Americans on democracy, religious tolerance, the role of women, the importance of capitalism. Moreover, as Stalin knew if you control the ground, you control the people. 

6. The current law in Afghanistan is capital punishment for people converting to Christianity. This clearly makes a farce of our intentions to introduce “democratic” and “religious” toleration in Afghanistan. 

7. Despite Obama’s increasing troop levels to about 128,000 men, we have no realistic chance to control the country which is about 250,000 square miles. We failed to win in Vietnam despite allocating over 550,000 troops in South Vietnam. Vietnam is half the size of Afghanistan. Moreover, during the Vietnam War, we did use the draft to increase of military presence. In Afghanistan, we are dependent upon a much smaller universe of volunteer soldiers. There is significant evidence that redeploying American troops for as many as five times has caused significant psychological damage to our soldiers and undermined their determination.

8. Afghanistan is mostly either desert or mountainous. These geographical factors inhibit the effectiveness of our technology. During the American Revolution, George Washington only won 3 battles. His victory derived from “not losing his army,” our vast geography, and the antipathy of our citizens toward Great Britain. “Our hearts and minds” increasingly belonged to the principles of our Founding Fathers and not a far away power. Rip Van Winkle was lucky that he was not hung from the nearest Apple Tree.

9.  Alternatively, the British Whig Party argued vehemently and ultimately successfully against King George III’s policies. The American Whig Party that won 2 presidential elections took the Whig name in honor of their British predecessors.

10. Our contrary intentions in Iraq and Afghanistan baffle me. Stated differently, while I would prefer not waging war in either country, I certainly prefer oil rich Iraq to opium rich Afghanistan. To quote Hillary Clinton, “Obama can make a good speech.” Along with most of you I cannot connect the dots. That is, ramping up our Afghanistan efforts while reducing our forces in Iraq seems contradictory.  In football terms, Obama is playing on both sides of the ball. (My observation is that Obama is the Greatest Pied Piper of all times. Unlike little children, he is leading all of us into the water to be drowned.)

11. Our military occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan could easily be promoting terrorists in other countries such as Yemen, Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, etc.  I am promoting a new doctrine instead of the domino theory. I call my doctrine “leaking toilet.” Stopping the smelly sewerage from spreading to the lowest elements in the Muslim world is a “stinky business.” The sewerage like old man river keeps rolling along. Currently, it is waste high in a number of lands that may or may not be adjacent to Afghanistan.

 

In Tom Friedman editorial This Time We Mean It in the New York Times, March 31, 2010, Friedman made the following points:

• President Karzai has recently invited Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Kabul. He is “sticking it in our eye.”

• President Karzai now claims that America is an obstacle and we want to dominate Afghanistan. Karzai has its ass backwards. Almost nobody wants to stay around Afghanistan for umpteen years including wife beaters, misanthropists and self-haters.

• Friedman castigates the Obama administration for not explicitly stating that Karzai stole he election. Instead of toilette paper, he wipes himself with “chads.”

• Karzai and his close associates are completely corrupt.

• American senior officials have openly acknowledged that Karzai has shunned responsibility for defense, governance and development. We have no better chance with Karzai in control that we would filling a glass with water that has a broken bottom

• Friedman says that in the Middle East when leaders tell you in private in English their message is irrelevant and misleading.  Friedman counsels to see the truth, listen to what Karzai and his band of thieves say to “their people in the street in their native language.”

• If Karzai continues to treat a parade of American officials (irrespective of party) with disdain, we certainly cannot count on his support when our troops leave.

 

Conclusion: While I do not think forcibly removing Karzai at this stage will be any more successful than removing the Diem brothers in Vietnam, I would take great pleasure in giving them “the order of the boot.” 

 

America will soon need to decide how much butter and how much guns we can afford. In 2009, government revenues were $2.5 trillion and expenditures were $3.8 trillion. The shortfall can be made up by drastic increases in taxes (not realistic) or cutting expenditures to the bone (not realistic). In the vernacular of the street, we are up a creek without a paddle.

 

We should remember Barbara Tuchman’s warning; we are on a march of folly. Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come! Let us not forget “charity begins at home.”

 

We have 2 diametrically opposite alternatives. Like most bulls we can get slaughtered by the bull fighter after hours backing in the hot sun. Otherwise, like Ferdinand the bull we can enjoy life by smelling the flowers.